O Brazil will not have wheat supply problems in the short term due to the war in Ukraine, as Argentina has already signaled that it has enough supply to meet national needs, but prices worry the sector, said the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo) .
The volume coming from Russia to Brazil is considered very small and there is no record of wheat purchases from Ukraine, said the association in a statement, while the Argentines are the main external suppliers of the Brazilian industry.
About 60% of Brazil’s wheat demand is met by imports and, of this total, 85% comes from a single country, Argentina, whose 2021/22 harvest is estimated at a record 22.1 million tons.
Despite Argentina being a major player in the sector, Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and Ukraine occupies the fourth position in this ranking, with the two countries accounting for around 30% of global wheat exports.

In this way, Abitrigo believes that the impact of the war in Ukraine will come to all importers of the commodity and will be in the costs.
“It is inevitable that the Ukraine crisis will directly affect world wheat prices,” she said.
Wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange are trading at 14-year highs.
If the armed conflict continues, the association believes that the suspension of shipments from Ukrainian ports will continue and importers will concentrate their demands on other exporters, such as the United States, Australia, Canada and Argentina – keeping prices at high levels.
“One factor that may alleviate this increase a little, but far from being significant, is the fall in the value of the dollar against the real in recent days, which may offset, to some extent, the recent increases in Chicago,” said the statement. Abitrigo.
“But the trend is that the price level will be very high, in the next four or five months, with a forecast of stabilizing or starting to fall from the month of July/August 2022, with the arrival of the crop in the Northern Hemisphere.”
In terms of supply, Brazil had a record harvest last season, with production advancing 23% to 7.68 million tons, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
Even so, imports of 6.5 million would be necessary, given an internal consumption projected by the state-owned company at 12.55 million tons.
Also according to Abitrigo, another issue that may impact the price of the cereal is the uncertainty regarding fertilizers, as Russia is one of the largest producers in the world and also a supplier of this product to Brazil.